|
Last Updated: March 15, 2008 - 3:24 PM
Cover Photo by Nathan Dinsdale; cover design by Angela Moore |
Bill Richardson’s presidential campaign began in the Silver State—it could end there too.
Theresa Navarro is nervous.
She’s hiding it well. If you learn anything from living in Nevada for 30 years it’s a good poker face. But her hands betray her as she stands in the parking lot outside the Nevada Appeal newspaper in Carson City, restlessly thumbing her cell phone like a string of rosary beads.
Two months ago, Navarro—a Reno real estate agent—was extolling the virtues of granite counters and French doors while peddling two-bed, one-bath condos to newlyweds. Now she’s singing the praises of renewable energy and international diplomacy in her efforts to sell a relatively unknown 59-year-old man to the American public.
And today Gov. Bill Richardson is running late. Navarro—the northern Nevada field organizer for Richardson’s presidential campaign—has spent weeks preparing for his arrival: The phone calls have been made, security checks finished and itineraries set. All that’s left is the waiting.
It’s a clear, blustery Ash Wednesday morning in the sun-baked foothills of the snowcapped Sierra Nevadas. In an hour, Richardson will join seven other Democratic presidential contenders in the nation’s first candidate forum of the 2008 election. In the meantime, he’s scheduled to press the flesh at the Nevada Appeal, where a spillover crowd of approximately 400 people will watch a live television feed of the forum being held down the street at the Carson City Community Center. But he has to show up first.
Navarro is flanked in the parking lot by eight more Richardson supporters, volunteers and employees. Like the rest, Navarro is a true believer.
“I have done some [regional] campaigns in the past that I may not have fully believed in, but I was doing them for the party,” Navarro says. “This is different. The energy level is so much higher when you know you could actually help put somebody in the White House who you truly believe in.”
Stand by your man: Richardson and Theresa Navarro, the campaign’s northern Nevada field organizer,
prepare to press the flesh at Carson City. |
A shiny black Dodge Durango pulls up to the curb. Mike Stratton, a veteran political consultant and senior campaign advisor, steps out of the driver’s seat and walks around to open the passenger door. Richardson pauses in the passenger seat to straighten his tie, then steps out and begins shaking hands with his welcoming party. Moments later, the governor makes his way past a gaggle of photographers and strides through the front door of the building.
It’s a small, but significant gesture. All the other assembled dignitaries—including US Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., and US Rep. Dennis Kucinich, D-Ohio—enter through a side entrance. Entering through the front is one of the small steps a second-tier candidate like Richardson will take to get noticed.
The governor must shed his relative anonymity to move beyond his current status as the “best second-tier candidate”
in the Democratic presidential primary race. But the tide of his political fortunes, as a real estate agent like Navarro might tell you, could shift on three simple words: Location, location, location.
The governor’s men: Campaign manager Dave Contarino (left) and senior advisor Mike Stratton (right) are integral members of the Richardson campaign. |
Nevada, Nevada, Nevada, to be specific.
The state flag bears the slogan “Battle Born,” but Nevada was only recently deemed an important presidential battleground. Last August, the Democratic National Committee (DNC) granted Nevada and South Carolina an early caucus and primary, respectively, in January 2008.
That privilege had traditionally been the sole province of Iowa and New Hampshire and the addition of two new states—attractive for their geographic and racial diversity—has tossed the usual primary process on its ear.
Richardson was an integral part of the effort to wedge a western state like Nevada between the Iowa caucus and the New Hampshire primary and, ever since Nevada’s historic designation, the governor has treated the state like a second home.
Richardson made his first presidential campaign stop in Nevada on Jan. 27, less than a week after announcing his candidacy. Richardson joined former candidate Gen. Wesley Clark for a $60-a-plate “Turn Nevada Blue” dinner at the Carson Valley Inn Casino in Minden, a small town south of Carson City. His next Nevada stop will be March 24 for a presidential forum in Las Vegas. |
Richardson’s first official campaign swing was in Nevada, he was the first candidate to hire a Nevada campaign staff, open a Nevada campaign headquarters and accept invitations to both the Carson City forum and another scheduled for March 24 in Las Vegas.
Richardson is a Latino candidate running on a labor-friendly platform of “western values.” Nevada is a state with large Latino and labor populations that holds western values sacrosanct. The governor’s platform is extensive but his Nevada campaign has specifically honed in on those three points.
The strategy appears to be working. After a sluggish start, Richardson has seen his national poll numbers surge in recent weeks. The governor has slowly emerged on editorial pages—from the New York Times to the Las Vegas (Nev.) Review Journal—as the Underdog who Could, an image his campaign has eagerly embraced, if not engineered. But his chances of becoming a serious contender hinge largely on how he fares in one place above all others.
“Nevada is especially critical for Gov. Richardson,” Dr. Eric Herzik, a renowned political analyst and chairman of the University of Nevada political science department, says. “A top three finish keeps him alive but he really needs more than that. Anything less and he’s done.”
Richardson is just getting started.
Meet the press: Richardson faces the national media in Carson City. |
His grand entrance into the Nevada Appeal underscores his need for down-to-earth Nevada appeal. His arrival catches people by surprise. Some eagerly step forward to shake hands. Others watch with curious bemusement as the small entourage makes its way to the second floor where Richardson walks into a large room amid popping flash bulbs.
Most of the 300 or so people sitting in folding chairs don’t pay much attention to his arrival. They stare ahead at the stage where former Washoe County Democratic Party Executive Director Pam Dupre speaks in front of a huge blue “Winning the West” banner hanging on the wall.
The governor eventually reaches the other side of the room before disappearing behind a large black curtain in the corner. Sen. Reid wraps up his welcoming speech as Team Richardson makes its final preparations.
Navarro fetches a water bottle. Pahl Shipley, the campaign’s national communications director, unscrews the cap and hands the water to Richardson. Stratton quickly pats the governor’s hair into place. Richardson takes a deep breath.
We’re on in 3…2…1…
Richardson’s name is announced. Moments earlier, behind the curtain, he looked tired. But he’s wearing an unflinching, megawatt smile as he strides confidently into the spotlight and a standing ovation.
It’s only 50 feet from the curtain to the stage but it takes Richardson nearly a minute to get there as he shakes any and all hands within reach along the way to the podium. After a few moments, the applause dies down.
Bill Richardson joined seven other Democratic presidential candidates in Carson City on Feb. 21 for the nation’s first candidate forum of the 2008 election. Other candidates included Sen. Hillary Clinton (NY), Sen. Joe Biden (DE), Sen. Chris Dodd (CT), Rep. Dennis Kucinich (OH), former Sen. John Edwards (NC), former Sen. Mike Gravel (AK) and former Gov. Tom Vilsack (Iowa). Vilsack dropped out of the race three days later. |
“You know, I’m a little bit frustrated because I was told that we have two minutes for an opening statement at the formal debate,” Richardson begins. “Two minutes to talk about how we’re going to balance the budget, bring health care to every American and end the War in Iraq…two minutes! Well, I can do it in four words: Elect a Democratic president!”
The crowd roars its approval. It’s a good line. It was even better when Richardson used it three weeks earlier at the DNC winter meeting in Washington, DC.
“Sen. Reid, thank you for your efforts,” Richardson continues. “He’s the one that made sure that Nevada was early in the primary process. A lot of people are taking credit, but it was Harry Reid nationally fighting off not just other states but other movements and so we should give a big round of applause to Sen. Reid.”
It’s a nice sentiment. But it’s not the whole truth. Few people outside of the Democratic Party establishment realize that Richardson was just as instrumental in arranging an early western primary.
Richardson began the effort in earnest while serving as chairman of the 2004 Democratic National Convention. Sixteen months ago, he met in the Roundhouse with a Utah delegation led by Republican Gov. Jon Huntsman to discuss the issue [Outtakes, Oct. 12, 2005, “Go West”]. Stratton—then a member of the DNC’s Scheduling and Nominating Commission, which recommended adding Nevada and South Carolina—was a key ally.
“Historically, the governor has been an advocate for a bigger, better seat at the table for the West,” Stratton says. “He’s been advocating that western states get their due for many years. And now that’s happening.”
Iowa (Jan. 14) and New Hampshire (Jan. 22) still hold their traditional distinctions as the sites of the nation’s first presidential caucus and presidential primary, respectively. But for the 2008 election, Democrats have added a caucus in Nevada (Jan. 19) and a primary in South Carolina (Jan. 29) before the calendar opens for the rest of the nation on Feb. 5, 2008 (“Super Tuesday”). |
Richardson also helped New Mexico hold a Democratic caucus for the first time in February 2004 and was instrumental in securing a spot for at least four western states (New Mexico, Arizona, Utah and Oklahoma) to hold early primaries or caucuses on Feb. 5, 2008, the earliest “Super Tuesday” in history.
“The West is virgin territory for Democrats,” Richardson tells SFR and other reporters after his speech at the Appeal. “More Democrats are moving into the West, there’s a Democratic surge in the West and western issues are now part of the presidential dialogue.”
The primary shift was a sensible push to get the Democratic Party to recognize regions with large minority populations previously treated as afterthoughts in presidential politics. Stratton says the subsequent boost to Richardson’s own aspirations has been due primarily to a fortuitous shift in the political climate.
True colors: College Republicans of Nevada President George Higgins (left) organized a GOP rally at the Democratic forum. |
“There are any number of issues and elements of the primaries that are advantageous to the governor and his platform,” Stratton says. “Timing is everything in politics and the fact that the West is now maybe the most important new battleground is something that—along with his resumé—is definitely an advantage for him.”
But sometimes it’s best to make your own luck. Since the 2004 election, Richardson has kept himself in the national discussion with high-profile economic projects (Spaceport, film industry), announcements (declaring a state of emergency at the border) and diplomatic missions (nuclear disarmament in North Korea, cease-fires in Sudan). Even the release of Richardson’s official biography, Between Worlds: The Making of an American Life, in November 2005 foreshadowed ambitions greater than winning a second term in the Roundhouse.
Richardson’s campaign has pounced on his image as a down-to-earth David among larger-than-life Goliaths. But Richardson—along with key staff like Stratton and campaign manager Dave Contarino—effectively laid the blueprint for his candidacy long before he officially became a candidate.
Western states holding primaries and caucuses on or before Super Tuesday will undoubtedly aid the governor. But Richardson acknowledges that the Democratic nomination will likely be sewn up by the end of January. Thus, Nevada is especially critical to his campaign’s survival.
“I have to do well in Nevada,” Richardson says. “It’s very important. But that doesn’t diminish the importance of Iowa and New Hampshire.”
But even Contarino admits Richardson has his toughest challenge in the Iowa caucus on Jan. 14 and will face an uphill battle in the New Hampshire primary on Jan. 22 if he falters in the Nevada caucus on Jan. 19.
“We have next to zero expectations in Iowa given the incredible competition there but we have some expectations in Nevada,” Contarino says. “We’re going to have to do well there but we’re still running against a rock star and a First Lady. They may not have the roots in Nevada that they have in Iowa but they still pose a significant challenge.”
And the clock is ticking.
The Richardson campaign isn’t wasting time.
Key personnel in Nevada—including Navarro, rural Nevada field organizer Michael Tassone and southern Nevada field organizer Javier Trujillo—have already begun the outreach effort in earnest.
The campaign’s Nevada strategy, while far-reaching, can be boiled down to three crucial elements: Latinos, labor and “western values.”
The first element is perhaps the most historically significant. Richardson is the first presidential candidate of Latino descent with a credible chance at the Oval Office. In any other election, his ethnicity would attract significant attention. But it’s a mere side note in the most diverse Democratic talent pool in history.
Crowd pleaser: With no babies to kiss, Richardson signs autographs in Carson City. |
“What bothers me is that you hear about Obama and Clinton all the time when people are talking about the diversity of this race,” Navarro says. “They always talk about a woman and a black man running but they never include the fact that there’s also a Latino in the race. Are they scared of the Latino vote? Well, they better be.”
Richardson himself has downplayed that characteristic, insisting he’s not a Latino candidate but an American candidate who is proud of being Latino. Nonetheless, nearly a quarter of the Nevada population is Latino. That voter pool could conceivably be a huge advantage for Richardson. But while much has been said about the coveted “Latino Vote,” actual Latino voter turnout consistently falls short of projections.
“The Latino vote is always projected as being the factor that will push candidate A or B over the top,” Herzik says. “Richardson has an advantage but the problem is that the Latino community is split politically, their political base is not as cohesive as other groups and Latinos simply have not turned out to the polls.”
Navarro—a longtime Latino activist—has already begun an outreach and education effort in northern Nevada focused on mobilizing local community leaders.
Richardson’s Nevada campaign staff includes Roberta Lange (state director), Reynaldo Martinez (Nevada campaign chairman and former chief of staff to Nevada Sen. Harry Reid), Josh McNeil (state communications director) and state field organizers Javier Trujillo (southern), Theresa Navarro (northern) and Michael Tassone (rural). |
“[Latinos] out there want to vote,” Navarro says. “The problem is the general lack of education about issues and the voting process itself.”
Mobilizing the labor vote is far easier thanks to the political savvy of labor organizations. But it’s also one of the most coveted—and thus elusive—portions of the Nevada electorate.
At the Carson City forum—sponsored by the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees union—Richardson is quick to highlight a collective-bargaining agreement he helped broker with New Mexico state employees. But in a state like Nevada—which has one of the highest concentrations of union households in the country—every candidate is running on a union-friendly platform.
“Richardson has an opportunity to tap into the labor vote,” Herzik says. “But he’s going to have a lot of competition. John Edwards, for instance, has been to Nevada several times and he’s working the labor vote really hard.”
The last major element of Richardson’s campaign strategy in Nevada is also his strongest chance to make headway in the state. The governor has billed himself as a western politician who understands western issues such as the environment, immigration, water and land use.
Many states have moved up their Democratic presidential primaries or caucuses into February for the 2008 election. On Super Tuesday (Feb. 5), several states critical to the Richardson campaign will hold a primary or caucus including New Mexico, Arizona, California, Oklahoma and Utah. |
Like New Mexico, Nevada is largely a rural, conservative state encompassing a few pockets of urban liberality. The distinction is especially pronounced in Nevada where 85 percent of the state’s population resides in Clark County and Washoe County, home to Las Vegas and Reno, respectively.
“It’s true that the state could be won simply on the basis of Clark and Washoe but we don’t want to ignore the people out in the rurals,” Tassone says. “We want to get their input and votes as well because it is a statewide campaign and we want to reach out to everybody.”
That includes people like George Higgins.
The clean-cut, 22-year-old business major at the University of Nevada-Reno is president of the College Republicans of Nevada. He’s also come back to Carson City—his hometown—with more than a dozen GOP supporters to hold a rally in conjunction with the Democratic forum.
“Nevada has been a Republican state for years,” Higgins says. “We welcome the Democrats to come and chat but at the end of the day we’re still going to be a Republican state.”
Higgins and the others chant, “Keep Nevada red!” and wave signs with slogans like: “This is Bush Country” and “I’m Here for the Mindless Easy Liberal Women: Vote Hillary!” as they stand on the lawn in front of the Carson City Community Center. The former First Lady is the primary target of vitriol but Higgins admits she isn’t his biggest concern.
“The one that scares me is Bill Richardson,” Higgins says. “Of all the Democrats, he’s the most experienced candidate out there. If he does well in the primaries he will be our most formidable opponent.”
Higgins comes dangerously close to sounding like a convert as he praises Richardson’s knowledge of issues like water rights, immigration and international diplomacy. Then he applies the brakes.
According to the Nevada Secretary of State’s office, there were more than 1.2 million registered voters in Nevada just before the November 2006 election. Democrats held a slight edge over Republicans (494,092 to 482,948) although nearly 90 percent of Democrats were concentrated in just two of Nevada’s 17 counties: Clark (Las Vegas) and Washoe (Reno). |
“I’m not saying I want him to win,” Higgins says, measuring his words. “He’s probably the best Democratic candidate…but he’s still a Democrat.”
Sometimes it’s hard to tell. Richardson is able to embrace both left-wing issues and right-wing causes while still maintaining a centrist course. Back home in New Mexico, Richardson recently resuscitated a liberal-friendly medicinal marijuana bill almost single-handedly. In Nevada, he highlights his appreciation for conservative hallmarks like fiscal conservatism and gun rights.
“Richardson would cause Republicans in a state like Nevada more concern than the Big Three,” Herzik says. “They faced Edwards before and they beat him. Clinton comes with her own baggage and Obama is an unknown.
Richardson, with his western roots, his resumé and the Latino connection? I wouldn’t want to face that if I was a Republican strategist.”
Indeed, Richardson is using the same broad appeal that won him significant GOP support in New Mexico to win over conservative Democrats in the Nevada caucus. But to do so, Richardson’s campaign will have to cover a lot more ground in a lot less time than his top-shelf competition. Richardson insists it can be done.
“Look, this election is not over,” Richardson says. “This primary is not over. You’ve got some people anointing three people already but it’s still a year away. Ultimately what you’re going to see is that the voters are going to make those decisions.”
Contarino suggests it’s only a matter of time before the Clinton/Obama circus dies down and voters focus more on substance. In fact, the pair’s poll numbers have already begun to slip.
Nevada has voted for a Democratic presidential nominee only twice (Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996) in the last 43 years. Nevada voters have nonetheless correctly picked the eventual presidential winner in every election except one (1976) in the last 100 years. |
“This is a marathon not a sprint,” Contarino says. “The candidates with the hype or the name ID get the early coverage but we’ve got the resumé and we believe that over time voters are going to recognize that.”
In order to do that, Richardson must engage in “retail politics,” the intimate campaign strategy that forces politicians to woo the electorate in mom and pop diners like, well, Mom and Pop’s Diner in Carson City. Only Richardson will have to do it earlier and more often to succeed.
“The ground that Richardson has to work is the classic primary route,” Herzik says. “But his handicap is a lack of time unless he plans on spending every weekend in Nevada. He doesn’t really have time to do retail politics.”
The Iowa caucus is little more than nine months away and, with several states—including bellwethers like California—holding primaries in February, time is of the essence.
“Richardson has to find a way to gain name recognition sooner than he would have in previous elections,” Brian Sanderoff, president of the Albuquerque consulting firm Research & Polling Inc., says. “It used to be that a candidate could use Iowa and New Hampshire to gain some attention as they moved into the spring and summer. But with states front-loading their primaries there isn’t time to sit back on that strategy.”
The Richardson campaign already is aggressively seeking votes far from the path beaten by Clinton and Obama. Tassone has logged thousands of miles in order to organize volunteers in dusty Nevada outposts like Ely and Elko and he says the effort is already beginning to show dividends.
“The governor really seems to be at the forefront of a lot of people’s minds,” Tassone says. “I honestly don’t see a lot of support for Clinton or Obama out in the rurals and I think that’s because the governor seems more down-to-earth than any of the other candidates and because he understands the issues facing Nevada.”
Understanding Nevada also means understanding the Libertarian streak that runs through its politics.
According to a March 14, Rasmussen Reports poll, Bill Richardson is favored by 5 percent of likely voters for the Democratic presidential nomination. The number marks an increase for Richardson, who received less than 2 percent of the votes on Jan. 22. |
“No Democrat or Republican is going to do well coming into Nevada and telling us how to live our lives,” Higgins says. “We were the first to legalize gaming, legalize prostitution, legalize everything because there are a lot of freedom-minded people here. These are solid stay-out-of-my-life kind of people. And it’s Ne-vad-uh. So hopefully nobody calls it Ne-vod-uh because they’ll lose immediately.”
George Stephanopoulos will not be the next president.
The moderator of the presidential forum—and host of ABC’s This Week with George Stephanopoulos—has just committed the mortal sin of mispronouncing “Nevada” and earned himself a chorus of jeers from the capacity crowd inside the Carson City Community Center.
But a few good-natured boos can’t be any more awkward for Stephanopoulos than what happened to Bill Richardson a few minutes prior.
The presidential pageantry in Carson City kicked off moments before with all eight participating candidates invited on stage for a photo opportunity before a cheering capacity crowd of approximately 1,000 people.
Richardson was ultimately left out of the wire photo of preening politicians that appeared in The New York Times and other newspapers the following day.
A small indignation perhaps, but to some the slight speaks volumes about the difficult task the Richardson campaign faces in order to stay afloat in one of the deepest Democratic presidential talent pools in years.
On the other hand, if Richardson does hold his own, the glare of the spotlight could become excruciating. The Internet is buzzing with questions about whether Richardson has Bill Clinton-esque secrets in his closet. A widely read blog post by Steve Clemons (www.washingtonnote.com), a former senior advisor to US Sen. Jeff Bingaman, D-NM, publicly asks Richardson to answer the allegation that the governor behaves inappropriately toward women colleagues.
Richardson’s campaign has repeatedly denied both inappropriate public behavior, as well as deep dark secrets.
Executive decision: Richardson is relying on his resumé to carry him to the White House. |
“It’s sad but not unexpected,” Contarino says. “We’re not surprised. These things were generated as political attacks years ago and as we gain momentum the old political attacks come out to try and slow us down. But that’s politics.”
Stratton and others insist Richardson wouldn’t have made it this far if the rumors were true.
“If there were anything to those issues, Bill Richardson would never have been governor of New Mexico,” Stratton says. “He would never have been re-elected or been confirmed by the US Senate as Secretary of Energy or as UN Ambassador. Those issues will play themselves out and at the end of the day they are not going to diminish his candidacy.”
The governor can’t tip-toe through the campaign either.
“I think candidates can become too cautious and if Richardson does that he’ll never distinguish himself,” Herzik says. “Al Gore ran in 2000 as the robotic candidate and he went nowhere with it until he decided to roll up his sleeves in the last month of the campaign. Richardson has to do that the entire time. He can’t afford to play it safe.”
Richardson is playing it safe.
Stephanopoulos has just called the governor to the stage in Carson City. Each candidate has been allotted two minutes for an opening statement and Richardson seizes on the format for his opening.
“Thank you, thank you,” Richardson says, acknowledging the moderate applause as he paces the stage like Jay Leno delivering a monologue. “You know, we’ve been given two minutes to tell you how we’re going to balance the budget, get out of Iraq, give opportunities to every American and strengthen the middle class but I can do it in four words…”
Get. Some. New. Material.
Richardson excels at one-on-one politics. Bump into him in the hallway and he’s affable, engaging and charming. Give the man a podium and he turns into Wonderbread. But, for now, Richardson is content letting his credentials speak for him.
“My main selling point is my experience,” Richardson says. “Everybody can talk about creating jobs and bringing peace to regions and creating renewable energy but I’ve actually done it.”
It’s a key point considering Richardson is now the only governor left in the Democratic race and governors have won seven out of the last eight presidential elections.
And indeed, Richardson’s numbers have begun to creep skyward. The governor wasn’t even registering in presidential polls in December but has gained as many as five percentage points in the two months since declaring his candidacy.
Richardson has received his most favorable response from a number of “insider” polls, including a February survey conducted by the National Journal of 81 party insiders in which 46 percent said Richardson was the second-tier candidate most likely to emerge as a serious contender. Nobody else was close. But even though Richardson’s poll numbers are rising, they still fall short of being considered a serious challenge.
“He’s still in single digits,” Herzik says. “When you’re looking at two very high-profile candidates in Clinton and Obama or even Edwards it’s a long shot for Richardson. But if one of those three stumbles, Richardson could move up right away.”
The weeks and months ahead will determine whether or not Richardson can pass muster on the nation’s grandest political stage.
Nonetheless, both the governor and his campaign staff refuse to describe Nevada as a “make or break” state and insist that all the early primary states are equally important.
It’s the politic response, but not necessarily accurate.
“Bill Richardson is going to have to shine somewhere and if it’s not going to be in a state like Nevada then where will it be?” Sanderoff says. “At some point he’s got to greatly exceed expectations and Nevada is a perfect place for that. If it doesn’t happen there…well, he’s going to start seeing the writing on the wall.”
© Copyright 2000-2008 by the Santa Fe Reporter
Save This Page to del.icio.us
Top of Page
|
|
|
Email this article
Printer friendly page
