Yet another poll is out today—and according to Rasmussen Reports, GOP governor hopeful Susana Martinez is clocking a 10-point lead over Democrat Diane Denish. Denish's campaign has said it doesn't put stock in "Republican pollsters," and the Martinez campaign is likely basking in the glory. Who's right?
These days, polls are churning out close to daily. This week, both Martinez and Denish published their own poll numbers—both with Martinez leading, but by 10 points in the Martinez campaign poll
and by only 5 in the Denish one
Oct. 1, 2010 (survey conducted on Sept. 29)Results:
Denish 41%, Martinez 51%Margin of error:
/- 4 percentage pointsConfidence:
750 "Likely Voters" (According to Rasmussen's "Methodology" page, "a series of screening questions" on respondents' voting habits, intentions and opinions on the current campaign were used to determine likelihood.)Question:
"If the 2010 election for Governor of New Mexico were held today, would you vote for Republican Susana Martinez or Democrat Diane Denish?"Partisan bias: Democratic, if any.
Rasmussen contracts with spinoff Pulse Opinion Research, Inc.
, to do the actual field work. Pulse, according to its website, gets "18% of its revenue from Republican sources, 20% from Democrats and 61% from sources not affiliated with either party."Post-poll:
"We really don't put a whole lot of stock in Republican pollsters like Rasmussen."
Chris CerviniCan't get enough
of the poll data? Despite its grammatically vexing name, the conservative-leaning
politi-hub Real Clear Politics
has a handy poll-compare site
, as does the New York Times/538