New Mexico has continued to successfully "flatten the curve" in combating COVID-19 through social distancing.
That's the good news.
But based on the state's modeling, expect the current stay-at-home orders to be extended through May 15. And don't expect life to be as it was until there is a vaccine.
While she shared considerable information and updates during a weekly briefing, Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham's focused centrally on what New Mexicans should expect in the coming months.
"It's not going to look like it did in January," Lujan Grisham said. "We're not going to be congregating in large groups, we're not going to be going to huge concerts…I think we're going to be wearing masks…we're going to still be socially distanced." But, she said, "we can ease up a little bit."
To that end, the governor shared a phased re-opening plan. The state has entered what she labeled as the first preparatory phase, in which "industry councils" will create safe practices for how businesses should protect employees and customers in the future. At the next phase, vulnerable people will still be required to stay home, but some non-essential businesses will be allowed to re-open following the protocols put in place. After that, additional businesses will be allowed to open, but people should expect large gatherings and events to be restricted for "the foreseeable future." The governor also announced a new Economic Recovery Council that will be helping create the re-opening plans and protocols.
The timeline for phased re-opening will be based on forthcoming criteria related to the number of cases, testing capacity, hospital capacity and other factors determined by the state's medical advisory board, explained state Human Services Secretary David Scrase.
The news comes as the state announced new cases and new fatalities. There were 139 additional positive tests for COVID-19 reported today bringing the state total to 2,210. There were also six additional deaths, five in San Juan County and one in McKinley County, both areas of the state hard hit by the impact of the pandemic. The number of deaths of New Mexico residents related to COVID-19 is now 71. County-by-county breakdowns, a statewide total and details on the recent fatalities are available at the end of this report.
The upshot is that while the state is overall doing better, portions of New Mexico have rising cases. Moreover, without a treatment protocol or vaccine, everyone remains at risk.
"It is too early to stand outside and feel like we won," Lujan Grisham said. "It's an invisible threat and it's still there." She noted a data point at which "one patient every hour was being transported from the northwest region to a health care provider in Albuquerque. I think people really need to understand, this is a very serious effort and it requires all of our support and all of our attention."
As of today, 121 people are hospitalized in New Mexico for COVID-19; 33 are on ventilators. The health department has designated 547 COVID-19 cases as having recovered.
Modeling COVID-19
A look at five counties provides a picture for what is happening in the state. Santa Fe has essentially flattened the curve while three counties in the northwest part of New Mexico continues to have increasing cases. Bernalillo County is starting to flatten.
"We have a great trend, a worrisome trend…and an encouraging one," Scrase said, while sharing a series of charts and graphs showing various elements of the state's COVID-19 modeling. Another model, below, compares Santa Fe and San Juan Counties. The black dots represent actual cases; the red ones are models of what will happen if levels of social distancing continue as they have in those counties.
In Santa Fe, the cases drop off. "Santa Fe should really be the model for the rest of our state of how to do social distancing," Scrase said, "…and how to take really seriously the threat of spread do the virus." San Juan County, he noted isn't "doomed," but the modeling indicates the need for more social distancing to take place there, and "we are seeing improvement in mobility data in San Juan County, we can bend that curve like we have for the whole state."
The overall flattening of the curve thus far means that currently the state's hospitals also are close to being able to meet potential surges. Based on the current modeling, the state would have adequate hospital beds and ventilators, although still faces some risks in adequate ICU beds.
The state is working on criteria that would need to be met both to open up some aspects of public life, as well as hospital operations. The criteria, still in draft form, will involve setting specific case rate trends, adequate testing, contact tracing, Personal Protection Equipment, hospital capacity and outbreak containment plans.
So while the picture is relatively positive, Scrase said, it's also still in flux.
"I want to issue a warning before everyone goes out in the street and starts celebrating," he said. "First, don't go out in the street and celebrate. Stay at home. This is just one week of data." While encouraging, he said, the state needs to wait and see what next week's data looks like. History, he noted, provides the reason why. Previous outbreaks, such as the Spanish Flu and H1N1 saw a resurgence in the second wave of cases when distancing measures were loosened. Scrase also made a point of noting that, as a geriatrician, he sees elderly people as a "symbol" of numerous groups of vulnerable populations in this epidemic.
"When we start coming up with ideas of how we can open things up more, every population is different," he said. "Every person is different. There is no one-size-fits all. We need to be careful…We don't want another whole peak and a new pandemic in New Mexico."
Testing
Health Secretary Kathy Kunkel provided an overview of where the state stands with regard to testing.
After beginning with seven sites on March 15, the state now has 64 testing sites in all 33 counties. It can run up to 5,000 tests per day. As of today, the state has performed 41,232 tests, both through its own Scientific Laboratory Division and numerous private partners.
The testing strategy, Kunkel said, has been targeted, with particular focus on congregate living facilities and pueblos, both of which have been identified as places with COVID-19. Specifically, she said, testing has taken place at 35 nursing homes and for 16 tribes.
Last weekend, the state began testing asymptomatic essential workers such as grocery store employees, construction workers and health-care employees, "people who are in direct contact with the public and are at most risk of contracting COVID[19] and not having symptoms," she said, noting that the additional testing of essential workers "was a bit of a surprise; we could have done a better job of preparing you," but the strategy with all the targeted testing "proactively and aggressively test these communities and stem the virus."
Congregate living facilities
The health department has identified positive COVID-19 cases in residents and/or staff at the following congregate living facilities or acute care facilities:
- Advanced Health Care of Albuquerque in Albuquerque
- Aztec Health Care in Aztec
- Beehive Homes in Farmington
- Cedar Ridge Inn in Farmington
- Central Desert Behavioral Health in Albuquerque
- La Vida Llena in Albuquerque
- Legacy Santa Fe in Santa Fe
- Life Care Center of Farmington in Farmington
- Red Rocks Care Center in Gallup
- The Neighborhood in Rio Rancho
- Uptown Genesis in Albuquerque
- Wellbrook Rehabilitation Center in Farmington
New cases
- 15 new cases in Bernalillo County
- 7 new cases in Doña Ana County
- 1 new case in Eddy County
- 1 new case in Guadalupe County
- 3 new cases in Lea County
- 59 new cases in McKinley County
- 3 new cases in Roosevelt County
- 25 new cases in San Juan County
- 19 new cases in Sandoval County
- 5 new cases in Santa Fe County
- 1 new case in Valencia County
Statewide totals
According to a news release, previously reported numbers included one case in Doña Ana County that was removed because the individual is an out-of-state resident. County totals are subject to change upon further investigation and determination of residency of individuals positive for COVID-19.
Bernalillo County: 600
Catron County: 1
Chaves County: 21
Cibola County: 35
Colfax County: 5
Curry County: 10
Doña Ana County: 82
Eddy County: 11
Grant County: 14
Guadalupe County: 2
Lea County: 5
Lincoln County: 2
Los Alamos County: 6
Luna County: 3
McKinley County: 519
Otero County: 3
Quay County: 3
Rio Arriba County: 11
Roosevelt County: 4
Sandoval County: 341
San Juan County: 339
San Miguel County: 2
Santa Fe County: 93
Socorro County: 34
Taos County: 16
Torrance County: 13
Valencia County: 35
